Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 20.922876 22.827759 24.943712 27.492337 30.512030 34.019529 38.469244
2025-01-12 17.777894 20.192134 23.072606 26.843134 31.780356 38.237051 47.730140
2025-01-19 16.415369 19.268510 22.884041 27.982938 35.334534 46.228684 65.319049
2025-01-26 14.928462 17.911903 21.851128 27.710973 36.802742 51.744260 82.612450
2025-02-02 13.900443 16.986866 21.206878 27.787034 38.716132 58.635761 108.252618
2025-02-09 13.125813 16.294454 20.760720 28.026577 40.896717 66.959602 147.884601
2025-02-16 12.441778 15.645456 20.276551 28.088520 42.743719 75.579053 206.572302
2025-02-23 11.769118 14.944860 19.625285 27.748291 43.716859 82.789756 285.544231
2025-03-02 11.269843 14.451014 19.231727 27.775173 45.427898 93.175794 454.389956
2025-03-09 10.783126 13.935716 18.748984 27.561373 46.561669 102.890455 784.078668
2025-03-16 10.340992 13.455260 18.275988 27.293405 47.505464 113.015887 1699.240634
2025-03-23 9.947906 13.023404 17.844188 27.042185 48.432697 124.305866 8317.391199
2025-03-30 9.595356 12.639048 17.470496 26.877066 49.613397 138.843354 NaN
2025-04-06 9.197660 12.162872 16.908126 26.269487 49.486797 147.386137 NaN
2025-04-13 9.109100 12.167793 17.166518 27.375929 54.534486 196.722151 NaN
2025-04-20 8.817948 11.831494 16.802731 27.117058 55.474776 222.007751 NaN
2025-04-27 8.597587 11.597885 16.603619 27.191774 57.535857 266.549724 NaN
2025-05-04 8.414707 11.415401 16.482100 27.423308 60.253006 336.765055 NaN
2025-05-11 8.221522 11.205965 16.296116 27.483270 62.431441 423.579974 NaN
2025-05-18 7.991871 10.925571 15.961351 27.155341 63.067514 495.895299 NaN
2025-05-25 7.820438 10.735151 15.782687 27.181306 65.160388 655.076546 NaN
2025-06-01 7.631715 10.507700 15.520686 26.975142 66.257844 834.872746 NaN
2025-06-08 7.447886 10.281502 15.248760 26.716674 67.076755 1077.205377 NaN